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Banking Lab experts anticipate moderate growth and inflation rates for 2024

20 December 2023

The Spanish Banking and Finance Institute held a new session of the Banking Lab today to discuss the economic and financial outlook for the Eurozone and Spain. During the session, participants anticipated moderate growth and inflation rates for 2024 and highlighted some key issues: 

  • The European Central Bank expects economic activity to recover in the Eurozone in the coming quarters, with certain downside risks.
  • The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility forecasts that the economy in Spain will grow 1.7% in 2024.
  • Countries in the euro area will see inflation converging towards their 2% target by mid-2025, following a moderate and temporary increase in the coming months.
  • The data seem to point to an upward trend in natural interest rates longer-term, driven by resource-intensive factors such as the energy transition, digitalisation or ageing societies, as well as a potential geopolitical fragmentation.
  • Growth and investment should be key to defining a fiscal consolidation strategy.

The session was attended by Óscar Arce, Director General for Economics at the European Central Bank, and Esther Gordo, Director of the Economic Analysis Division of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF). It was moderated by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group.